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The Euro reached a three-week high, as the French election looms – business live

All day economic and Financial news, as political events continue to dominate the markets

  • Latest: the Euro rose after a survey predicts him to win
  • The stock market is rallying Fench
  • Like Le pen could win the presidential race
  • Agenda

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Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

7.07 am EDT
07:07

One of the most striking elements of the French elections, the recent revival of françois Fillon.

After a surprise victory in the Republican party, campaign Fillon was seriously wounded by allegations that his wife was paid for work she would have done.

The novel is Penelope, it seemed likely sink the chances of Fillon and his plans Tatarovskaya free market reforms.

But instead, it restores the land and could still claim a top-two finish on Sunday.

If this happens, Fillon can thank its main support, and his movement towards a more populist right-wing politicians.

My colleague John Henley explains:

Born into a traditionally Catholic Sarthe Department, West of Paris, Fillon-the son of a history Professor father and mother a lawyer. With Penelope, whom he met at Le Mans, when she studied for a year abroad, he raised five children in the 12th century castle.

He abstained or voted against the law on equality between men and women, and same-sex marriage and is personally opposed to abortion although he would not try to repeal the law in 1975 legalized in France.

A year after he was first elected as the youngest Deputy of France, he opposed the law of 1982, which effectively legalized homosexuality. The center-right of the gay rights group GayLib, described his vision of French society as “clearly hostile attitude towards LGBT people”.

Fillon promised to protect “Christian values of France.” It would prohibit artificial insemination and using donor sperm to single women and same-sex couples, and to abolish some rights of gay adoption.

He also promised to set annual quotas for immigration, restriction of the rights of foreigners on French nationality, the age of criminal responsibility at 16 years, 16000 to build new prison cells and, in foreign policy, to develop a more positive relationship with Russia.

The final days of the campaign saw Fillon openly courted the hard-right voices, calling France’s sovereignty and identity and the perspective on its rally in Lille needs to take drastic measures against immigration and a policy of zero tolerance of radical Islam.

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6.53 am EDT
06:53

Candidates to become the next President of France ran a campaign for several months, including a major TV debate earlier this month.

But many voters still have not decided whom they will vote, and their choice could decide the outcome of elections.

Mihir, Kapadia, CEO and founder of sun global investmentssays:

The French election looks very close. Although him and Le Pen is expected to make it to the second round, all four candidates and close to 30% of voters say they have not decided ahead of Sunday’s vote. Two interesting weeks in France.”

Sociologists have reported that the number of unfinished French voters at an unprecedented level.

This graph, determine the IP address from the security services, reveals how a last-minute change of heart can strengthen or undermine the leading candidates:

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

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6.16 am EDT
06:16

This “nightmare” for global financial markets is the second round of the duel between equally sharp-tongued Le Pen and Mélenchon, says the associated Press Jon Lester.

Anyone can win, in the Wake of the quarter and the month of voting, may deliver a knockout punch to the ambitions of the EU ever-closer Union among the peoples of Europe, because both want to break the agreement that unite the 28 EU countries.

Mélenchon said: “in Europe, our dreams are dead.” It offers a “defiance of treaties from the moment we take power”, and the negotiations on the new EU rules will be followed by a referendum on whether France should leave the bloc, he helped to found. “We either change the EU or leave it” Manifesto Mélenchon says.

“Totalitarian” EU has long been one of the pet hates Le Pen and a constant target for her spiteful nationalist discourse. She wants the referendum on the membership of France in the EU, the new French franc was replaced by a single currency, the Euro, and restore the French border to stop what it describes as out of control immigration.

Like her father, National front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, it was hoped that the electoral coup, making a runoff. However, sociologists suggest that like him, she’ll probably lose on may 7, in any of the other three opponents.

Updated
at 6.37 am EDT

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5.51 am EDT
05:51

The French stock market rally

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

The Paris stock market is on track for its best day since early March.

The French CAC 40 jumped today by 1%, outperforming the rest of Europe, as investors react to the latest forecasts of the victory of the macron.

Financial stocks leading the rally, with BNP Paribas jumping 2.6% and “Societe Generale” has added 1.9%. Technology and consumer stocks also.

FTSE 100 lags behind, although partly due to the growth of the pound this morning.

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

Joshua Mahoney, market analyst at IG, explains:

The ruble is weakening again this morning, as the pound continues its ascent as a result, the decision of Theresa may to announce early elections just seven weeks.

For many of the pound seems illogical, however, the prospects of strengthening the Tory majority means there is hope that these elections can be good for the UK in negotiating the British exit from the EU.

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5.31 am EDT
05:31

M&S is not the only retailer in the UK closing stores.

The Debenhams announced its intention to close 10 stores and 11 warehouses, as the new CEO Sergio Bucher becomes face to face with his “tired and old” of real estate.

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5.12 am EDT
05:12

Green investment Bank the UK sold

News: the government announced the sale of the British green investment Bank the Australian Bank macquarie in £2.3 bn Internet (as my colleague Adam Vaughan said overnight).

This will not be popular with environmental activists, who have questioned the commitment of Macquarie to clean energy.

Dr Doug Parr, policy Director at Greenpeace UK, said:

“At a time when the government should be strengthening the low-carbon industry in the post-British exit from the EU Britain, they gave one of our key tools for promoting green technologies. The hole left by the green Investment Bank will slow the transition to clean energy systems, us back on achieving our goal, which means more jobs, new sectors will come.

If the government raises its rate, the UK could become a world leader in the field of renewable and green technologies. But selling the British success story that leveraged private money in environmental projects in disputed Australian Bank known assignment is a disaster. We need investment in the booming clean technology industry in the UK for skilled jobs, a fair account and a healthy economy to see us through the next few uncertain years in the future.”

Ft Jim Picard suspects in the deal slipped away under the cover of election fever:

Jim Pickard
(@PickardJE)

Violation: the £2.3 bn sale of green Investment Bank has confirmed a good week to bury one of the most scandalous privatization deals of recent years.

20 APR 2017

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4.56 am EDT
04:56

Euro rises higher, now up 0.5%, reaching a new three-week high of $1.077.

This is partly due to the General weakness of the dollar, and that the French public opinion poll, suggesting the victory of Emmanuel macron.

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4.42 am EDT
04:42

Retail news: marks and Spencer has closed six stores in the UK, but prospective employees that they will be offered new positions in other departments.

Zoe Wood
(@zoewoodguardian)

M&s is close to 6 stores: monks cross, Portsmouth, Manchester, Sheffield, Doncaster and Worksop promises 380 team ‘guaranteed’ translation

20 APR 2017

Zoe Wood
(@zoewoodguardian)

The growth of m&s also said that 36 new stores will be opened over the next six months, creating 1,400 new jobs

20 APR 2017

Here is the statement.

Updated
at 4.44 am EDT

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4.37 am EDT
04:37

European stock markets were likely to fall sharply if the French elections provides the result of the shock.

Sjölin if Sarah explains:

But two-way risks: a victory, or Le Pen or Mélenchon would trigger a sell-off in risk assets and drive the French and European equities fell by 5% to 10% by the end of June, rates. However, if the macron or Fillon fastens with a post of the President, stock in Europe, you can see 10%equity -20% to the end of the year, they said.

Sara Sjölin
(@sarasjolin)

“Investors (and the voters) are not worried about a nightmare scenario” – the election in France this Sundayhttps://t. cooperation/DJFYKMNP29 pic.twitter.com/KPV1XOSOT7

20 APR 2017

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4.15 am EDT
04:15

The pound also strengthened this morning, up half a cent at $1.2825 against the dollar.

Reuters Jamie Mcgeever noticed signs that investors are more confident in the assets of the UK.

The yield (or interest rate) on government securities of great Britain (public debt) has decreased in recent weeks, for example, as the price of bonds has increased.

Jamie Mcgeever
(@ReutersJamie)

Investors are more optimistic about the UK’s exit from the EU than at any time since September, when the first of may has taken a firm stance quarter and month. Now investors are buying and gilts pic.twitter.com/kKQ3ipubIS GBP

20 APR 2017

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4.05 am EDT
04:05

The best hope marine Le Pen to win will come in the runoff against former Prime Minister françois Fillon, says Antonio Barroso, living intelligence.

Barroso believes that many centrist and leftist voters may find this place a delight, and not to participate in this second round scenario.

He writes:

Worst-case scenario from the point of view of a potential victory of Le Pen in the second round between Fillon and the leader of the National front. This is especially true given the recent ex-Prime Minister “right turn” after he suggested that he would include members of the ultra-Catholic organization in its administration.

In combination with his frequent attacks on judges, this will only make it more difficult for Fillon to authentically moderate position in between rounds. The risk is that centre-left voters decided to stay home on may 7 that Le Pen is elected by the neglect of the voter, not for the approval of the voters.

Barroso also believes that the macron would be a much tougher opponent for Le Pen.

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

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3.54 am EDT
03:54

This graph confirms that the traders were concerned about the French elections and the future winner of Euro-skepticism:

Jamie Mcgeever
(@ReutersJamie)

As the 1st round of Sunday’s French election approaching, one measure of volatility, the Euro is on the way to its biggest weekly jump on record pic.twitter.com/As4mdjhyEZ

20 APR 2017

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3.47 am EDT
03:47

Tactical voting will likely keep marine Le Pen out of the élysée Palace, says kit Nicole, country risk analyst at IHS global insight:

In the case where Le Pen spoke out against the Fillon, or, more likely, macron, voters from the middle left and right, most likely, will unite the so-called “Republican front” voting tactically to keep the FN out of power.

The victory of Le Pen is, so, unlikely, but still possible, especially in the price of abstinence will also play a big role.

In addition, the occurrence of a major terrorist attack, widespread urban riots, or the disclosure of incriminating information aimed at discrediting the Makron would significantly increase the proportion of the NF vote.

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3.37 am EDT
03:37

The Euro reached a three-week high

The Euro reached its highest level since the end of March this morning.

The single Currency rose 0.3% against the greenback to $1.074, after a New poll suggested the centrist candidate Emmanuel macron will win the elections in France.

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live

Harris interactive placed a macron on 25% support on the eve of the first round of Sunday’s vote, ahead of marine Le Pen (22%).

The Republican candidate Francois Fillon (19%) and left winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon (also 19%) followed behind.

Nicolas
(@nicolasjeannot1)

Il ya de Nouveau UNE VRAI machine a MACRON “BERCY” sensing Harris today very of BVA by Hayer et assurément ODOXA tomorrow Mais studies have shown that du MAL⬇ this pic.twitter.com/7HwMo3XuqW

20 APR 2017

Harris also read Makron comfortably beat Le Pen in the second round vote in may.

Christophe Barro
(@C_Barraud)

#MACRON OF FRANCE TO DEFEAT LE PEN IN THE 2ND ROUND 66% VS. 34%, HARRIS – SUV

20 APR 2017

The Euro was under pressure from forecasts that either Le Pen or Mélenchon (or even both) may contest start, as both are very critical of the EU and can potentially cause Frexit.

I’ll pull together now some kind of reaction….

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3.20 am EDT
03:20

Agenda: political concerns linger

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, financial markets, the Eurozone and business.

Political issues continue to occupy the attention of the market.

The first round of presidential elections in France only three days, so investors are closely watching to see which candidates in the runoff in two weeks.

The race looks pretty tough, has raised fears that the Eurozone could be dragged into another crisis if the more common candidates stumble.

Neil Wilson of etx capital explains:

Volatility in the Euro reached its maximum since June, before the referendum, as markets weigh the prospects for either marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon – or both – making the second round. The Killer scenario for the Euro would be if both candidates to accept the may 7 runoff, as this would increase the real possibility of entering France at the Euros.

The current survey gives nod to Rules and Le Pen, with a Macron, ultimately, victory. But with four candidates, polling about 20%, there is every reason for caution. We look at the action plans in emergency situations in the case of the Le Pen-Mélenchon drain, as this may cause a big collapse in the Euro and French government bonds and Bank stocks.

General election in the UK also dominates the city, of course, as traders try to calculate the consequences. Latest front pages MDM Theresa may has decided, quarter and month on the Centrepoint of the campaign:

Euro hits three-week high as French election looms – business live
Jamie Mcgeever
(@ReutersJamie)

Oh, Yes, this ‘softer’ British exit from the EU… pic.twitter.com/Rw7YDe5nKO

20 APR 2017

Overnight, Asian shares were contributed to the good trade data from Japan.

Exports increased at the fastest pace in two years in March, raising hopes that demand growth from abroad can help the sluggish Japanese economy.

Holger Zschaepitz
(@Schuldensuehner)

Good morning. Shares in Asia to strengthen the short position on the French elections this weekend. Strong Japan data back stock markets. pic.twitter.com/2ADGZyzBq0

20 APR 2017

There are a lot of corporate news, including results from Unilever, the Debenhamsand the sky.

On the economy, there are indicators of construction in the Eurozone at 10am BST, weekly initial jobless claims in the US, 1: 30 PM, and consumer confidence in the Euro area statistics 3 hours a day.

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